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中俄油气合作的现状和发展前景
——未来5~10年，将是中俄油气合作发展的关键时期，双方利益所在，前景值得期待，道路不会平坦 曾兴球
中国中化集团公司原总地质师
Current Status and Development Prospects of the Sino-Ruian Oil and Gas Cooperation---Bearing the common interests of both sides, the Sino-Ruian cooperation is expected to enter its crucial development stage in the next 5 to 10 years with promising prospects but uneven courses.Zeng Xingqiu Former Chief Geologist of Sinochem Group 中俄油气合作一直为人们所关注，其对于保障我国能源安全供应有着十分重要的意义，在我们谋划“十二五”能源发展战略的时候，尤其要深入研究中俄油气合作的问题。可以预料，未来5~10年，将是中俄油气合作发展的关键时期，中俄油气合作是中俄双方共同利益所在，前景值得期待，道路不会平坦。为了实现中俄油气合作长期稳定发展，我们必须理性认识中俄油气合作的现状，科学分析制约中俄油气合作的主要因素，正确把握中俄油气合作发展的走势，形成共识，才能不失时机地做好各项工作，不断提升中俄油气合作的水平。
As a continuous concern, oil and gas cooperation between China and Ruia plays such an important role in ensuring China’s energy security and supply that requires further researches in planning of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of energy development strategy.Bearing the common interests of both sides, the cooperation is expected to enter its crucial development stage in the next 5 to 10 years with promising prospects but uneven courses.In order to achieve long-term stable development, we must seize every opportunity to do all preparatory work well with the consensus formed by rational understanding of the current status, scientific analyses of the main constraints and correct grasp of the development trend so as to constantly improve the level of the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation.中俄油气合作的现状
1996年4月，叶利钦访华，中国政府和俄罗斯政府签订《中俄联合声明》，确定双方要“发展平等与信任的、面向21世纪的战略协作伙伴关系”，并于4月25日签订了中俄两国政府《关于共同开展能源领域合作的协定》。从那时候算起，中俄油气合作已经走过14年的历程，14年来，中俄油气合作尽管三波九折，遇到不少困难，中国石油天然气集团公司等中国油气企业抱着“咬定青山不放松”的决心，锲而不舍，从国家能源发展战略需要出发，千方百计促进中俄油气合作发展到了一个新的阶段。
Current Status of the Sino-Ruian Oil and Gas Cooperation
In April 1996, during Yeltsin’s visit to China, Chinese and Ruian governments signed Sino-Ruian Joint Statement to “establish a strategic collaborative partnership geared to the 21st century based upon equality and trust”.On April 25th, Agreement on Joint Development of Energy Cooperation was signed.Sine then, the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation has gone through a course of 14 years full of setbacks and difficulties.Neverthele, China National Petroleum Corporation and other oil and gas companies, in the spirits of resolution and perseverance, have left no stone unturned in promoting the development of Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation to a new stage from the needs of national energy development strategy.1.中俄原油管道建成投产
中俄原油管道由中国石油和俄罗斯管道输油公司合作修建，起自俄罗斯远东原油管道斯科沃罗季诺分输站，终止于中国境内漠河首站。按照中俄长期原油贸易协议，俄罗斯将通过中俄原油管道每年向中国供应原油1500万t，合同期20年。中俄原油管道建成投产意义重大：首先，这是中俄两国建立“战略协作伙伴关系”以来，实施成功的第一个大型经贸合作项目；第二，为扩大中俄油气合作探索出一条新路子，树立起一个好榜样；第三，中俄油气管道建成投产克服了许多技术上的难题，为两国将来合作建设其他跨境工程（天然气管道、铁路、桥梁等）积累了经验；第四，为中俄两国在“战略协作”的机制下，互惠互利，开展广泛的经贸合作，发展两国的友好关系，提供了成功的典范。在原油管道项目的推动下，中俄油气领域其他方面的合作也有了新的进展。
1.Completion and entry into production of China-Ruia crude oil pipeline Constructed by joint cooperation of China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC)and Transneft, China-Ruia crude oil pipeline starts from Skovorodino sub-transmiion station of the Far East oil pipeline and ends at Mohe, the first stop of China.According to Sino-Ruian long-term crude oil trade agreement, within the contract period of 20 years, Ruia shall annually supply China with crude oil of 15 million t.The completion and entry into production of China-Ruia crude oil pipeline is of great significance.At first, it has been the first succeful large-scale economic and trade cooperation project since the establishment of “strategic collaborative partnership” between China and Ruia;secondly, it has explored a new path and established a good example so as to expand the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation;thirdly, tackling technical difficulties has accumulated experience for the two countries to build other future cro-border projects(natural gas pipelines, railways, bridges and etc.);fourthly, under the mechanism of “strategic collaboration”, it provides a succeful example for mutual benefits, extensive economic and trade cooperation as well as development of friendly relations between China and Ruia.Stimulated by the crude oil pipeline project, cooperation on other aspects of Sino-Ruian oil and gas fields has made new progre.2.中俄天然气管道谈判取得实质性成果
从1996年起，根据两国开展能源合作的协议，中国石油与俄罗斯有关公司曾对多个天然气合作项目进行过前期研究工作，但没有一个项目能够付诸实施。直到2006年3月普京访华，中国石油与俄罗斯天然气股份有限公司签署了《关于从俄罗斯向中国供应天然气谅解备忘录》，俄罗斯方面明确同意每年从西部向中国供气300亿m3，从东部向中国供气380亿m3。随后双方就供气的具体方案进行了若干轮次商务谈判，终因各种障碍，均未取得实质性进展。一晃又过了3年，2009年10月13日，中俄两国副总理见面，王岐山副总理和谢钦副总理分别代表两国政府签署了《中俄天然气合作线路图》，中国石油与俄罗斯天然气股份有限公司签订了《关于俄罗斯向中国出口天然气框架协议》，双方重启商务谈判。通过最近几轮谈判，中俄天然气管道的走向基本确定，双方还在积极进行与天然气管道项目相关的商务条款和融资合作继续谈判，进一步细化俄罗斯向中国出口天然气的技术环节，有望在西线管道建设方面达成一致意见，合作步伐有所加快。2.Substantial results of Sino-Ruia gas pipeline negotiations
Since 1996, according to energy cooperation agreement between the two countries, CNPC and the related Ruian companies had conducted preliminary researches for many natural gas cooperation projects, none of which was put into practice.Until Putin’s visit to China in March 2006, CNPC and Ruia’s Gazprom signed A Memorandum of Understanding on the Supply of Natural Gas from Ruia to China, which stated that Ruia would supply China with 30 billion m3 from the west and 38 billion m3 from the east.Afterwards, several rounds of busine negotiations on specific gas supply programs were carried out, but no substantial progre was achieved owing to various obstacles.Three years paed in a flash.On October 13th, 2009, China’s Deputy Prime Minister Wang Qishan and Ruia’s Deputy Prime Minister Sechin met each other and signed Sino-Ruia Natural Gas Cooperation Diagram on behalf of the two governments.And as CNPC and Ruia’s Gazprom signed A Framework Agreement on Ruia’s Gas Exports to China, busine negotiations between the two sides restarted.Strike of China-Ruia natural gas pipeline has been identified by recent rounds of negotiations.The two sides are still actively engaged in negotiating on commercial terms and financing cooperation aociated with the gas pipeline project so as to further specify some technical links of Ruia’s gas exports to China.As an agreement on the western pipeline construction is expected to be reached, the pace of cooperation has been accelerated.3.上游油气资源勘探开发合作有新的进展
我国参与俄罗斯上游油气资源勘探开发项目不多。主要项目有：中国石油与俄石油合资的东方能源有限公司，经营伊尔库茨克州西乔、上伊恰尔两个区块，2010年9月，已完成物探义务工作量，钻探井1口，有油气显示。中国石化与俄石油合资的维宁石油股份公司，对萨哈林-3的维宁区块进行了钻探，也有所发现。中国石化与俄石油合资经营的乌德穆尔特项目，近两年原油产量逐渐上升，已经扭亏转盈，改变了原来的被动局面。为了扩大上游油气资源勘探开发合作的规模，中国的石油企业正在对俄罗斯东西伯利亚和远东地区待出售的油气资产项目进行技术经济评估，力争能筛选出一些合适的项目，希望在今后5~7年内新建1000~1500万t原油生产能力。
3.New progre in cooperation of the upstream oil and gas exploration and development
China has not participated in many Ruia’s upstream oil and gas exploration and development projects.The main projects are as follows.The joint venture Vostok Energy Ltd established by CNPC and Rosneft operates Ciccio and Upper Yijiar blocks in Irkutsk.By the end of September, 2010, it had completed the geophysical obligation workload and drilled 1 exploration well with oil and gas shows.Venin Holding Ltd, a joint venture established by Sinopec and Rosneft, drilled Veninsky block of Sakhalin III and made new discoveries.In recent years, benefiting from a continuous rise in crude oil output, Udmurt, another project operated by Sinopec and Rosneft, has turned loes into profits and changed the original paive situation.In order to expand the upstream oil and gas exploration and development cooperation, China’s oil companies are making technical and economic aement of oil and gas aet projects for sale in eastern Siberia and the Far East of Ruia, with the goal of picking out some right projects to build 10~15 million t crude oil production capacity within 5 to 7 years.4.下游石油炼制和石油化工方的合作进展较快
2006年中国石油与俄石油合资成立东方石化公司，该公司天津1300万t/a炼油项目，规划70%加工俄罗斯原油，已完成可行性研究，俄方已对可行性研究报告审查完毕，并希望能尽快启动炼厂建设。2009年俄罗斯方面计划在远东地区建设滨海炼油厂，邀请中国石化投资参股。中国石化正在做项目评估，有意向参与合作。4.Rapid development of cooperation between the downstream oil refining and petrochemical industry In 2006, CNPC set up the joint venture Eastern Petrochemical Corporation with Rosneft.According to the planning, 70% of the oil refining project of 13 million t/a in Tianjin would proce Ruian crude oil, the feasibility study of which has been completed and reviewed by the Ruian side.The refinery construction is expected to start as soon as poible.In 2009, Rosneft planned to build coastal refineries in the Far East, and Sinopec was invited to invest and participate, of which the ongoing project evaluation showed its tendency to participate in the cooperation.5.原油贸易稳步增长
2001年以来，中国从俄罗斯进口原油数量呈增长趋势，2006年达到1596万t，近两年有所减少，大约1100万t左右。原来主要靠铁路运输，随着中俄原油管道投产，原油贸易量会迅速增加。2009年，中俄达成250亿美元商业贷款协议，作为交换，俄罗斯以石油为抵押，在20年期限中，向中国出口3亿t原油，平均每年1500万t，加上原来铁路运输的部分，中国从俄罗斯每年进口原油3000万t以上是完全可能的。5.Steady crude oil trade increases Since 2001, China’s crude oil imports from Ruia has showed a tendency to increase with amounting to 15.96 million t in 2006 and a decrease to about 11 million t in the last two years.With China-Ruia crude oil pipeline being put into operation, the crude oil trade which once mainly relied on the railway transport is bound to witne a rapid growth.In 2009, a commercial loan agreement of 25 billion U.S.dollars was reached between China and Ruia.Ruia pledged the oil in exchange and claimed to export crude oil of 300 million t to China within 20 years with the average amount of 15 million t every year.Therefore, together with the original railway transport, it is entirely poible for China to import more than 30 million t crude oil from Ruia every year.6.油田技术服务和石油设备进出口方面也很有潜力
中国在俄罗斯的油田服务所占市场份额不大，俄罗斯对外国油气田作业队伍准入的门槛比较高。近几年，仅在地球物理勘探、管道建设等少数项目上获得部分工作量，但中国生产的钻井、修井机、钻头等石油装备在俄罗斯市场得到认可，发展的潜力比较大。俄罗斯方面，也应邀参加中国油气田开发技术服务，在储气库建设、高含硫气田开发设计等方面，俄罗斯的专家发挥了重要作用。
6.Great potential in the oilfield service and oil equipment import and export Due to the relatively high requirements for foreign oil and gas operation teams, China accounts for a low market share of Ruian oilfield services.In recent years, only part of the workload has been obtained in terms of several projects, such as geophysical exploration, pipeline construction and etc.Fortunately, drill rigs, workover rigs, drill bits and other oil equipment made in China have received reorganization in the Ruian market with a relatively great development potential.Meanwhile, being invited to participate in the technical services of China’s oil and gas field development, the Ruian experts have played an important role in construction of gas storage, development and design of high-sulfur gas field and etc.7.其他领域里的合作
2010年以来，梅德韦杰夫和普京先后访华，签署了《进一步深化中俄战略协作伙伴关系的联合声明》，积极推动双边合作，除继续扩大油气合作外，在煤炭、核电、新能源开发等其他能源领域，正在开启中俄合作的新篇章。7.Cooperation in other fields
Since 2010, Medvedev and Putin have visited China, signing Joint Declaration on Further Deepening the Sino-Ruian Strategic Collaborative Partnership to actively promote bilateral cooperation.In addition to continuing to expand oil and gas cooperation, new Sino-Ruian cooperation is approaching in terms of the coal, nuclear power, new energy development and other energy sectors.总体看来，中俄油气合作稳步推进，基本面是好的，双方都期待着今后能有更大的作为。同时，也不能否认，推进中俄油气实现长期合作，还存在着不少障碍，还要继续努力。天然气进口价格谈判久拖不决，上游油气资源勘探开发合作进展不尽人意，炼油化工刚刚起步，技术服务和技术交流合作都还十分薄弱。所有这些，不同程度地在我们的心理上投下了“俄罗斯人难打交道”的阴影，甚至使得有的同志对推进中俄油气合作缺乏信心。
Overall, steady progre with a sound foundation has been made in the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation;both sides are looking forward to better performance in future.Meanwhile, there is no denying that to promote long-term oil and gas cooperation is still faced with many obstacles which require more efforts.Under the influence of long-delayed negotiations of natural gas import price, unsatisfactory progre of upstream oil and gas exploration and development cooperation, fledgling oil refinery and chemical operation and weak cooperation on technical services and exchanges, it is considered difficult to aociate with Ruians and some of us are even become diffident about promoting the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation.俄罗斯地大物博，资源丰富。国土面积1709.8万km2，拥有1560多个油气田，探明原油可采储量750亿bbl，天然气（常规）可采储量48万亿m3，是世界第二大天然气资源国（伊朗）的两倍。中俄是两个大国，又是近邻，有着十分深刻的文化历史渊源，尤其是在石油和天然气方面，资源和市场的互补性很强。中俄油气合作对双方来讲都是不可或缺的，无论遇到多么大的困难，我们都要迎难而上，化解矛盾，推动中俄合作健康发展。
Ruia has vast territory and abundant resources, covering an area of 17.098 million km2.There are more than 1,560 oil and gas fields with proven recoverable oil reserves of 75 billion bbl and recoverable natural gas(conventional)reserves of 48 trillion m3, amounting to twice of the world’s second largest natural gas country(Iran).As superpowers and close neighbors, China and Ruia maintain deep cultural and historical continuity, especially in highly complementary oil and gas resources and markets.The Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation is so indispensable to both sides that whatever difficulties we meet, we should pre forward to resolve every conflict with the goal of promoting sound development of the Sino-Ruian cooperation.制约中俄油气合作的主要因素
中俄油气合作究竟存在哪些障碍，为什么“俄罗斯人难打交道”？我们必须要认真研究，理性认识，才能找到化解矛盾的办法。初步分析，制约中俄油气合作的主要因素有以下六方面。
Major Constraints on the Sino-Ruian Oil and Gas Cooperation What are the obstacles in Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation? Why are “Ruians hard to deal with”? In order to resolve conflicts, careful researches and rational reorganization are bound to be conducted.Major constraints on the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation are listed as the following six aspects by means of preliminary analysis.1.俄罗斯处在发展战略调整期，能源政策不稳定
从上世纪90年代初开始，俄罗斯对原苏联时期的经济体制进行彻底改造。90年代后期，俄罗斯经济出现了恢复性增长势头，但在经济发展方式上，始终没有摆脱高度依赖资源出口的传统模式，经济增长是低质量的，不稳定的。2008年金融危机爆发，导致俄罗斯经济增长严重下滑，证明了俄罗斯的经济发展已经到了必须改革的时候了，必须由资源型发展模式向创新型模式转变，实现经济现代化。普京和梅德韦杰夫都认识到了这一点，2009年通过的《2030年前能源发展战略》，与过去发布的能源战略相比，不仅对能源发展的数量目标作了调整，主要是在发展思路、发展方向上发生了变化，更加强调保证国内供应，更加注重提高出口质量。
1.Ruia’s instable energy policies in the period of development strategy adjustment Since 1990s, Ruia has conducted a thorough transformation to the economic system during the former Soviet Union.Ruia’s economy resumed a growth momentum during the late 1990s, but the development mode never defected from the traditional mode of highly dependent on resource exports, resulting in low quality and instability of economic growth.In 2008, the financial crisis led to a serious decline of economic growth in Ruia, proving that it was the time for Ruia to carry out economic reform to achieve economic modernization by means of shifting the resource-based development mode to innovation-oriented mode.As Energy Strategy up to 2030 paed in 2009 showed, both Putin and Medvedev realized that compared to the original energy strategies, not only the goals of energy development were adjusted in terms of the quantity, but changes mainly took place in the development idea and direction with more emphasis on guarantee of the domestic supply and improvement of the export quality.梅德韦杰夫就任总统后，亲自负责俄罗斯经济现代化和技术发展委员会的工作，将能源开发、核工业技术、航天技术、生物医疗和信息技术列为创新型经济的五大支柱；将调整能源结构、发展能源生产、升级能源产品、研发节能新技术作为俄罗斯经济现代化发展规划的核心。为了提高能源效率，优化能源出口，先后更新了一系列能源税收政策，限制外国公司投资俄罗斯能源行业。在全世界大打能源牌，希望“能源兴国”，“能源强国”，打造能源大国形象，把能源当做武器，恢复昔日称霸世界的雄风。
After taking office as president, Medvedev aumed his personal responsibility for economic modernization and technological development commiion of Ruia, listing energy development, nuclear industry, aerospace, biomedical science and information technologies as five pillar industries of innovation-oriented economy;illustrating energy structure adjustment, energy production development, energy product upgrade and research and development of new energy-saving technology as the core of development planning of Ruia’s economic modernization.In order to improve energy efficiency and optimize energy exports, a series of energy tax policies were updated to restrict foreign companies from investment in energy industries in Ruia.Under the strategy of developing and invigorating the country through energy throughout the world, Ruia built its superpower image by use of energy, regaining its former glory of the world leader.俄罗斯油气资源管理国家化，这就增加了外国公司想在俄罗斯直接获得资源的难度，凡是不符合俄罗斯战略意图的油气合作项目恐怕都难以执行。推动中俄油气合作，我们必须研究俄罗斯的政策变化，打破传统的合作方式，寻找到俄罗斯能够接受的办法。虽然俄罗斯对外开放度不高，但据不完全统计，现有外国公司在俄境内的油气合作项目至少还有56个，研究他们的合作过程，或许我们可以从中得到一些借鉴。因为不开放，不借助国际资本，不引进先进技术，俄罗斯就无法实现自己的战略目标。
Nationalization of oil and gas resource management made it more difficult for foreign companies to directly acce to resources in Ruia, oil and gas cooperation projects incompatible with the Ruian strategic intents are probably difficult to implement.To promote the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation, we must study Ruian policy changes, break traditional cooperation forms and find out ways acceptable to Ruia.Despite low degree of opening up to the outside world, but Incomplete statistics indicate the existence of more than 56 oil and gas cooperation projects of foreign companies in Ruia, the cooperation procees of which may offer us some leons.It is not impoible for Ruia to achieve its strategic goals without opening up to the outside world, the aid of international capital, or the introduction of advanced technologies.2.俄罗斯对华的战略疑虑并未明显消减
近10年来，中俄两国之间的政治互信确实不断增强，国家关系发展到一个比较好的时期。不过，由于复杂的历史原因和不同的文化背景，无论是在政府高层人士中，还是在俄罗斯民间，“中国威胁论”的阴影总是挥之不去。中国经济的崛起，使他们存在多方面的担心：担心中国强大之后，重算历史旧账，重提“领土要求”；担心中国对俄罗斯远东进行“静悄悄的人口扩张”；担心中国搞“经济扩张”，将俄罗斯变成中国的“原材料附庸”；担心“中美共治”，拿俄罗斯做交易，贬低俄罗斯的大国地位；担心中国在中亚挤占俄罗斯的传统利益和势力范围，等等。
2.Insignificant reduction of Ruia’s strategic concerns towards China With a continuous growth of mutual political trust, Sino-Ruian relation has entered a relatively good period in recent ten year.However, “China threat” caused by complex historical reasons and different cultural backgrounds have haunted both the top officials and ordinary Ruians.They feel uneasy at China’s economic rise in terms of many aspects, such as recounting the historical territorial claim;silent population expansion to the Far East;conversion to China’s “raw materials appendage” through “economic expansion”;worry about “Joint Sino-U.S.Rule” to barter away Ruia and downgrade its status of great power;worry about China’s occupation for the traditional interests and sphere of influence of Ruia in Central Asia and etc.中国的国际地位快速上升，越受世界瞩目，越使部分俄罗斯精英感到失落，中俄经济实力对比差距拉大，中国似乎变成了俄罗斯的“老大哥”，大大挫伤了他们的民族优越感，使得“中国威胁论”广为传播，严重影响了中俄两国的正常合作关系。俄罗斯对中国的这种疑虑，简单地用“政治互信不足”来概括是不确切的。这是一种“战略疑虑”，有着深刻的内在原因。消除这种历史遗留下来的社会成见，不是靠语言解释，而是靠实践证明。我们现在要做的就是坚持互利原则，认真做好每一个合作项目，把项目做优、做精，用真诚合作的行动来消除他们的心理障碍。
With rapid increase of China’s international status, more attention paid by the world upsets Ruia.Larger gap of Sino-Ruian economic power turns China into Ruia’s apparent “Big Brother”, which greatly hurts their national superiority, widely spreads “China threat theory” and seriously affected the normal cooperation between China and Ruia.It is incorrect to summarize the worries of Ruia towards China as “lack of political trust” that is actually a “strategic concern” bearing deep underlying reasons.To eliminate this historical legacy of social stereotypes, we should rely on practices to prove instead of language interpretation.At present, we need to overcome their psychological barriers by means of sincere cooperation with good and refine performances in every cooperation project under the principle of mutual benefit.3.俄罗斯内部利益集团的矛盾对中俄油气合作也会产生一些负面影响 随着俄罗斯政治制度和经济结构的变化，各种类型的利益集团势力日益增大，他们会从不同的渠道影响政府的决策，对中俄油气合作有时也会产生一些负面影响。比如，在“安纳线”的走向选择上，俄罗斯石油运输公司以“国家必须控制具有战略意义的石油管线”为由，否定了“安大线”，因为“安大线”在俄罗斯境内的距离不及“安纳线”的一半，直接影响到俄运输公司的经营收入。3.Negative effects from Ruia’s interior interest group conflicts towards the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation
With changes of Ruian political system and economic structure, powers of various types of interest groups increasingly grow, which would influence the government decision-making from different sources, sometimes bringing negative effects towards oil and gas cooperation between China and Ruia.For example, in terms of the strike of “Angarsk-Nakhodka Line”, Rosneft denied the “Angarsk-Daqing Line” on the pretext of absolute control of the state over the oil pipeline of great significance, because the “Angarsk-Daqing Line” within Ruia amounts to le than half of the “Angarsk-Nakhodka Line”, which has a direct impact on the operating income of Ruian transport companies.又如，2002年斯拉夫石油公司拍卖事件中，中国石油被迫退出竞标，让西伯利亚和秋明石油公司组成的合资公司中标，出价比中国石油低得多，主要原因是西伯利亚石油公司的老板阿布拉莫维奇，对国家杜马俄罗斯地区主席莫罗佐夫游说的结果。再如，在中国进口萨哈林-1天然气的问题上，中国石油与埃克森（萨哈林-1的作业者）就天然气购销合同的价格等条款已完全达成一致，但由于俄罗斯天然气股份有限公司不赞成直接将天然气管道修建进入中国，导致项目无法启动。
For another example, in the auction event of Slavic Oil Company in 2002, as CNPC was forced to withdraw from the bid, the joint venture formed by Sibneft and Tyumen Oil Company won the bidding with a price much lower than that of CNPC, as a result of the campaign of Abramovich, the owner of Sibneft, to the Chairman of Ruia’s State Duma Morozov.Take another example, in terms of China’s import of natural gas from Sakhalin I, CNPC and Exxon(the operator of Sakhalin I)reached full agreement on the price and other terms of natural gas purchase and sales contracts but ended in failure due to the disagreement of Gazprom on direct construction of the natural gas pipeline within China.4.外部竞争因素对中俄油气合作有一定的制约作用
所谓外部竞争因素主要是指“中—俄—美”、“中—俄—欧盟”、“中—俄—日、韩”、“中—俄—中亚”等大三角关系之间的竞争关系，这是制约中俄油气合作很重要的外部条件。在所有的竞争关系中，人们常常把注意力放在“中—俄—美”三方的角力上，这当然是不容忽视的重要外交格局。然而，就对中俄油气合作的影响而言，欧盟仍然是最为关键的一方。俄罗斯与欧盟在各个领域里都是最为重要的合作伙伴。欧盟16%~20%的油气进口依赖俄罗斯，这一状况短期内难以改变。俄罗斯加入世贸组织，欧盟是关键。欧盟与俄罗斯不仅是基本的贸易伙伴，而且还是俄罗斯的主要投资者和信贷者，俄罗斯能源设备更新、技术改进最主要的支持者。俄罗斯与欧盟这一发达消费区之间形成的贸易格局、贸易模式、贸易价格，对于发展中的我国来讲，无疑是很大的挑战，俄罗斯在选择合作伙伴时，往往令我们处在不利的地位。在东北亚地区，日本和韩国也与中国对俄罗斯油气资源合作形成竞争关系，韩国没有石油，煤的储量也只有8500万t，尽管中国具有广阔而稳定的市场优势，而日本和韩国具有较强的工程技术服务能力，对中俄油气合作有时也能起到“搅局”的作用。
4.Constrains upon the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation caused by external competitive factors The so-called external competitive factors mainly refer to “China-Ruia-U.S.”, “China-Ruia-Japan & South Korea”, “China-Ruia-Central Asia” and competition among other big triangles, as very important external conditions in restricting the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation.In all of the competitive relations, people often focus on the “China-Ruia-U.S.” relation, which is an important diplomatic pattern to be reckoned with.However, as the most important partner of Ruia in various fields, the EU is of the most crucial importance in terms of impacts on the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation.It is difficult to change within a short term that 16% to 20% of the EU’s oil and gas imports rely on Ruia.The EU plays a vital role in Ruia’s acce to WTO.As a basic trade partner, main investor and creditor, the EU offers the most important support in Ruia’s energy equipment renewal and technical improvements.The trade pattern, model and price of the developed consumption area between Ruia and the EU undoubtedly represent great challenges for developing China, often leaving China disadvantaged in Ruia’s choice for its partner.In Northeast Asia, Japan and South Korea are in competition with Sino-Ruian oil and gas resource cooperation.With no oil, coal reserves of South Korea are only 85 million t.In contrast with China’s broad and stable market, Japan and South Korea has advantage of strong engineering and technical service capabilities, which sometimes spoils the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation.5.俄罗斯东部地区油气资源开发滞后
俄罗斯虽然资源丰富，但出口量大，供应链条很长，如何使资源开发、稳定生产和有效供应之间形成良性循环，这是当前影响俄罗斯扩大油气领域对外合作的一个大问题。俄罗斯东部（主要包括东西伯利亚和远东）地区面积近1000万km2，油气资源勘探开发程度很低，累积探明原油储量47亿bbl，仅占全俄探明原油储量总数的6%，与西西伯利亚相比较，地质情况复杂，地面条件很差，油田开发难度大。东部地区出口的油气主要靠东部油气田开发提供产量，俄罗斯现在既缺资金，又缺人力，为了实现2030年的油气产量目标，东西伯利亚和远东地区的油、气田开发，新建炼油厂，铺设油气管道等，预计需要投入资金2000亿~2500亿美元，在金融危机的背景下，俄罗斯仅靠国内无法筹集到如此巨额的资金。如果不改变策略，扩大上游开放，东部地区的油气产量难以上台阶，恐怕满足现有管道的设计输送量都有困难。
5.Backward development of oil and gas resources in the eastern region of Ruia In the face of rich resources, large exports and long supply chain, it remains a big problem for Ruia to form a virtuous circle among resource development, stable production and effective supply, which has significant impacts on the present expansion of oil and gas field cooperation with foreign countries.Eastern Ruia(including eastern Siberia and the Far East)covers an area of nearly 10 million km2, with a low level of oil and gas exploration and development and cumulative proved oil reserves of 4.7 billion bbl, accounting for only 6% of Ruia’s total proven crude oil reserves, where the oil field is difficult to exploit under complex geological environment and poor ground conditions in contrast with western Siberia.The oil and gas exports of the eastern region mainly depend on production from its oil and gas field development.Faced with shortages in funds and manpower, in order to achieve the oil and gas production target of 2030, it is expected to invest 200 to 250 billion U.S.dollars for oil and gas field development in eastern Siberia and the Far East, new refineries and oil and gas pipelines.However, in the context of the financial crisis, it is impoible for Ruia to raise such a huge amount of funds at home.Without changing its strategy to expand the upstream open-up, perhaps the oil and gas production of the eastern region has difficulty in satisfying the design throughput of existing pipelines.此外，俄罗斯内部的产业规划，也还在讨论之中，东部地区的天然气，目标市场是以中国为主，还是日本、韩国或其他地区为主？是直接卖天然气，还是加工成LNG再销售？俄罗斯想把天然气中的氦分离出来，单独销售，必须兴建加工处理装置，又需要大量投资。所有这些，如何解决，俄罗斯政府、各利益集团都还在研究评价之中，犹豫不决，难以决策，这也是中俄天然气合作项目一拖再拖的原因之一。
In addition, the industrial planning within Ruia is still under discuion.It is wondered where the target gas market of the eastern region is, such as China, Japan, South Korea and etc.It is considered whether the natural gas or LNG should be for sale.In order to separate helium from natural gas and sell separately, proceing equipment must be constructed, which requires considerable investment.All difficulties above land the Ruian government and various interest groups into hesitant and irresolute research evaluation, which put off the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation.6.我国天然气利用基础设施配套建设滞后，市场开发还有很多工作要做 根据目前中俄协商的结果，有望在2015年以后，每年从俄罗斯向中国进口天然气680亿m3，从目前的工作进展情况看，中俄西部天然气管道建设的步子会更快一些。中国从中亚进口天然气的数量，待二期工程结束后，每年可能达到800亿m3。中缅天然气管道竣工后，按设计能力每年可进口120亿m3。加上东部沿海在建和设计的液化气（LNG）接收站陆续投产，2015年以后每年可进口液化气3280万t（约合446亿m3天然气）。根据已签购销合同，2010年合同供应液化气1200万t（约合56亿m3天然气）。综合上述，我国进口天然总量2015年可达1560亿m3到2000亿m3。
6.Backward supporting construction of natural gas infrastructure and a large number of tasks in market development
Based on the current Sino-Ruian consultations, it is expected that China will import 68 billion m3 natural gas from Ruia every year after 2015.From the present progre, construction of the west line of Sino-Ruia gas pipeline proceeds faster.After the second phase, the amount of China’s import of natural gas from Central Asia may reach 80 billion m3 per year.According to the design capacity, natural gas of 12 billion m3 will be imported after completion of Sino-Myanmar gas pipeline.Coupled with gradual commiioning of LNG receiving stations of the east coast under construction and design in the gas, the annual LNG import will amount to 32.8 million t(about natural gas of 44.6 billion m3)after 2015.On the basis of previously signed purchase and sale contracts, LNG supply in 2010 should be 12 million t(about 5.6 billion m3 natural gas).In summary, the total amount of imported natural gas will amount to 156 to 200 billion m3 in 2015.2009年全国消费天然气890亿m3（其中自产850亿m3），按消费量每年增加100亿m3计算，到2015年达到1500亿m3，届时引进天然气（含液化气）有可能出现短期过剩的现象，对国内市场开发要早作规划。与引进国外天然气相关的重大配套工程建设，如：国内天然气管网建设，输、配气机制，天然气调峰储气库建设等虽然都已有安排，但大都还在实施过程中，还没有形成完善的市场供应体系。国外发展天然气的一条重要经验是利用天然气发电，我国如何规划，有关方面尚在讨论之中。国内天然气定价机制还没有理顺，进口气与自产气价格如何接轨，不仅影响进口天然气的价格谈判，也关系到有序开发国内天然气市场的重大问题，需要抓紧时间研究解决。
In 2009, natural gas consumption of the whole country was 89 billion m3(85 billion m3 domestically produced).Based upon the annual increase of 10 billion m3, the consumption will reach 150 billion m3 by 2015, when a short-term surplus of introduction of natural gas(including LNG)may appear, which requires making early planning on the domestic market development.Though major supporting projects aociated with the introduction of foreign natural gas, such as construction of domestic gas pipeline network, gas transmiion and distribution system, natural gas peak load storage and etc., have been arranged, most of them are still in the proce of implementation, which hasn’t yet form a perfect market supply system.An important experience of natural gas development abroad is to generate electricity by use of natural gas, while the domestic planning is still under discuion of all parties concerned.Domestic gas pricing mechanism has not straightened out.How to integrate imported and self-produced gas prices not only affects the price negotiation of natural gas imports, it also relates to orderly development of the domestic gas market, which prees for immediate solution.推进中俄油气合作的几项重点工作
中俄油气合作目前发展的势头很好，在未来合作的道路上，可能还会遇到各种各样的困难，有时甚至会出现挑战大于机遇的情况。中俄双方现在都已认识到，中俄油气合作是大势所趋，对双方谋划后金融危机时代本国经济的发展，都有着重大的战略意义。尤其是对中方而言，在经济全球化的大背景下，在对能源资源争夺十分激烈的国际市场环境里，国家对能源的需求量不断增大的形势下，中国会在较长时间里一直处于买方地位，应当更加重视中俄油气合作。我们与俄罗斯开展油气合作，不是权宜之计，既要看到不利因素，保持清醒的头脑；又要看到有利条件，看到潜力，看清前景，着眼长远发展战略，运用大智慧，积极务实地推进中俄油气合作。
Major Tasks in Promoting the Sino-Ruian Oil and Gas Cooperation
With a good momentum at present, the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation may encounter various difficulties and sometimes more challenges than opportunities in the future.Both China and Ruia are now aware that the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation is a general trend which obtains great strategic significance for both parties to plan their economic development in the post-crisis era.Especially for China, in the context of economic globalization, intense competition for energy resources in the international market and increasing energy demand at home, China will remain as a buyer in a long time so that more attention to the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation should be paid.During the proce of oil and gas cooperation with Ruia, in stead of a temporary expedient, on one hand, we must see the negative factors with a sober mind;on the other hand, we have to find advantages and potential to promote the cooperation in a positive and pragmatic manner by means of great wisdom with an eye to long-term development strategy.1.深化中俄“战略协作伙伴关系”，增强双方的政治互信
中俄关系是当今世界一对比较成熟的大国关系，大国、邻国相处有相当的复杂性，国际关系大变动、大调整的深刻影响，不可避免地会在中俄关系中引发出各种各样的问题，难免有一些深层次的问题对发展两国关系产生某种负面的影响，同时也会直接反映到中俄油气合作中来。因此，我们要继续深化中俄之间的战略协作伙伴关系，进一步增强双方的政治互信，为中俄油气合作营造一个良好的合作环境。
1.To enhance mutual political trust with improvement of the Sino-Ruian “strategic collaborative partnership” The Sino-Ruian relation is a pair of relatively mature one among great powers in the world.With considerable complexity among great powers and neighboring countries, the profound impact of major changes and adjustment in international relations will inevitably lead to various problems in the Sino-Ruian relation.It is inevitable that some in-depth problems will bring about negative impacts on the development of bilateral relations directly reflected in the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation.Therefore, we must continue to deepen the Sino-Ruian strategic collaborative partnership and further enhance mutual political trust so as to create a sound environment for the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation.中俄“战略协作伙伴关系”不同于我们与其他国家所建立的“战略合作伙伴关系”，只有一字之差，涵义有所不同。俄罗斯方面很看重“协作”两个字，普京最近几次谈话，都十分强调中俄的“协作关系”。他认为，“协作”高于“合作”，按“协同动作”来评价今天的中俄关系，完全有理由认为，其内涵还没有充分体现出来，中俄“战略协作伙伴关系”发展的潜力还很大。我们要继续加强两国政府高层对话，加强文化交流，加强能源外交。相关企业要行动起来，善于运用两国之间的政治互信推动企业之间的经济合作，企业之间多交流信息，增进了解，改变“官热民冷”、“上热下冷”、“政热企冷”的状况。要执行好已有的合作项目，夯实合作基础，扩大合作领域，开拓中俄合作的新局面。The Sino-Ruian “strategic collaborative partnership” differs from “strategic cooperative partnership” we established with other countries, where the change of one word makes different meanings.Ruia pays considerable attention to “collaboration”, and Putin lays great stre on the Sino-Ruian “collaborative relationship” in his recent remarks, who believes that “collaboration” ranks “cooperation”.To evaluate the Sino-Ruian relationship of today in accordance with “collaborative cooperation”, there are reasons to believe that Sino-Ruian “strategic collaborative partnership” has a huge potential for development as its meaning has not yet fully reflected.We should continue to promote high-level dialogues between the two governments, cultural exchanges and energy diplomacy.Related enterprises should promote inter-enterprise economic cooperation with adoption of mutual political trust between the two countries and enhance understanding by means of more information exchanges so as to change status of “warm officials but cold maes”, “warm top but cold bottom”, “warm politics but cold economy”.We should implement the existing cooperation projects with sound performances and solid basis to expand cooperation fields with the goal of opening up new prospects of the Sino-Ruian cooperation.2.加强战略研究，了解俄罗斯的政策变化
中俄油气合作不同于一般的国际商贸活动，双方都是着眼未来，面向21世纪国家发展战略。俄罗斯人很讲究战略智慧，他们很擅长能源外交。我们也要加强战略研究，不但要研究我们自己的发展战略，还要研究俄罗斯的发展战略，并与我国发展战略进行比较，找到中俄发展战略的锲合点。要通过差异性研究，理解俄罗斯的政策走向，知道俄罗斯需要什麽，我们能给他们什麽，用什麽方式从俄罗斯拿到我们想得到的东西。对双方的战略思想有了深刻的理解，才能充分发挥自己的优势，有的放矢地做好项目选择，实事求是地作出投资决策。2.To understand Ruia’s policy changes with enhancement of strategic researches Different from general international commercial activities, the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation should focus on the future national development strategy geared to the 21st century.Ruians who have a genius for energy diplomacy are very particular about the strategic wisdom.We should strengthen strategic researches both of our own and Ruia and figure out the compatibility by means of comparison.Through the study of diversity, we should understand where the policy inclines to, what Ruia needs, what we can offer and how we get what we want from Ruia.Only when we have a deep understanding of strategic thinking of both parties, shall we give full play to the advantage, make project selection with a definite object in view and set investment decisions in a practical way.商务谈判，不能只算小帐，要从长远战略需要出发算大帐，看对未来会带来什么影响。比如价格谈判，当然要追求合理，希望廉价，究竟多高的价格我们能接受，一定要综合评价。不能因为对方报价高，就认为是政治互信不好，难打交道。政治互信能创造最佳投资环境，促进经济合作，但不能代替经济利益。什么样的价格能接受，取决于战略需要。
For commercial negotiations, we should take the long-term strategic needs into account to figure out the profound impact, instead of paying full attention to small accounts.To take the price negotiation for instance, comprehensive evaluation should be adopted to find out the acceptable price level in the pursuit of reasonable and cheap prices.We should not devalue the political mutual trust for aociating with just because of the high price.Political mutual trust can create the best investment environment and promote economic cooperation, but it can’t replace economic benefits.The acceptable price level depends on strategic needs.3.坚持双赢互利原则，以经济利益为中心，积极务实推进合作
中俄油气合作现阶段又到了一个新的机遇期。以中俄天然气管道为例，过去在俄罗斯内部意见是不一致的，一部分人主张向东拓展市场，同意修建中俄天然气管道；一部分人主张向西，以巩固欧洲市场为主，暂时不要建中俄天然气管道，双方争执不下，中俄天然气管道谈判十余年来，反反复复，难结成果。3.To promote the cooperation in an active and pragmatic way with persistence in mutual benefits and win-win principle around the economic interests At present, the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation has entered a new stage full of opportunity.Take Sino-Ruia natural gas pipeline for example.In the past, there is disagreement in Ruia: some people agreed to build the natural gas pipeline so as to expand the market towards the eastern region;others proposed to consolidate the European market westwards and dropped natural gas pipeline for the time being.The argument was finally brought to a climax which put off the negotiations on Sino-Ruia gas pipeline for more than ten years without any result.如今的形势不同了，俄罗斯内部上上下下，一致赞同加快推进中俄天然气管道项目，甚至对持不同意见者进行人事更换。原因就是金融危机以来，俄罗斯国内经济大伤元气，欧洲天然气市场趋于疲软，中亚天然市场份额锐减，拓展海外市场，倡导天然OPEE的设想屡屡受挫，最实惠的出路就是扩大向中国出口，修建中俄天然气管道，东部地区资源开发有待时日，西西伯利亚的天然气是现成的，所以对修建阿勒泰天然气管道尤为感兴趣。在这种形势下，我们应该积极调整策略，创新合作模式，在双赢互利的原则下，积极务实地推动中俄油气合作。The situation today has changed that every Ruian unanimously agrees to accelerate Sino-Ruia natural gas pipeline project with one consent and even have a turnover of those who hold different views.Devitalized by the financial crisis, with sagging European gas market and sharp drop of its market share in Central Asia, Ruia’s idea of expanding the overseas market and promoting the natural OPEE was frustrated.The most affordable way is to expand exports to China through Sino-Ruia gas pipeline.Resources of the eastern region remain to be exploited, while natural gas western Siberian is available, which stimulates the particular interest in the construction of Altay natural gas pipeline.Under this situation, we should actively adjust the strategy and make innovation of the cooperation model so as to promote the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation in an active and pragmatic way under the mutual benefit and win-win principle.4.加强基础建设，完善价格机制
2020年以前，中俄油气合作可能还会是天然气为主。天然气的特点就是资源开发和市场开发必须同步进行，任何一方面滞后都将是不经济的，尤其是对进口天然气，一定要做好国内市场准备。相关部门要提前规划好供气管网建设，完善调峰机制，加快储气库等配套设施的建设，保证安全平稳供气。国内自产气价格偏低一直是引进天然气的一大难题，可以参考国外一些国家的做法，高、低价气“分输混价”，解决气源气价格不一致的问题。适时合理调整天然气价格，对于规范国内天然气市场，推动中俄油气合作具有重要现实作用。
4.To strengthen infrastructure construction and to improve the price mechanism Until 2020, the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation may focus on the natural gas.The feature of natural gas requires synchronization of resource exploitation and market development, neither of which ought to lag behind in terms of economic interests.Especially for imported gas, the domestic market must be well prepared.Related departments should project well the gas pipeline construction, improve the peak load mechanism and accelerate the construction of gas storage and other supporting facilities so as to ensure safe and stable gas supply.The low price of domestic gas has been a major problem for the introduction of natural gas.We can adopt the method of “separate transmiion with fixed prices” so as to resolve the inconsistent prices of different gas sources with reference to practices of some foreign countries.Timely and reasonable adjustment of gas prices plays an important and practical role in normalizing the domestic gas market so as to promote the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation.5.培训人才，做好中俄长期合作的准备
人才准备是最关键的战略准备。俄罗斯是一个崇尚文化、热爱艺术的民族。上个世纪50年代中苏合作曾经有过一段难忘的历史，那是因为我们有一批熟悉苏联文化，思想好、业务精的人才。现在重启中俄合作的新篇章，我们虽然有了一些很有活力的年轻人，但从长期合作的要求出发，数量还远远不够，质量也还有待提高。要造就一代新人，具备国际化人才的基本素质，了解俄罗斯的历史，熟悉俄罗斯文化，才能够把握合作的机遇，在俄罗斯人民的心中树立起中国企业的先进形象，促进中俄油气合作长盛不衰。
编辑／陶 东
5.To make good preparation for long-term cooperation between China and Ruia through human resource training Talent is regarded as the key strategic preparation.Ruia is a people that have paion and love for culture and art.In 1950s, the Sino-Soviet cooperation witneed a memorable history because a number of profeional talents of sound ideology familiar with Soviet culture existed.At present, to restart a new chapter in the Sino-Ruian cooperation, though there are some energetic young people, long-term cooperation requires more talents of better quality.We should create a new generation with the basic quality of international talents who understand Ruia’s history and know the Ruian culture well to grasp every opportunity of cooperation and establish advanced images of Chinese enterprises in the hearts of Ruian people with the goal of promoting the Sino-Ruian oil and gas cooperation without decline.Edited by Tao Dong
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