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2014年新兴市场10大技术趋势
It’s no secret that more and more telecoms firms have been looking to emerging markets as the frontier for growth.But what will be the market drivers in 2014 as companies look to expand? What trends will the industry’s savvy players look to exploit? Here are 10 trends for 2014 to watch out for.越来越多的电信企业将新兴市场视为增长的前线，这已不是秘密。但随着企业寻求扩张，哪些因素将成为2014年的市场驱动力？行业中的精明玩家应当注意把握哪些潮流？以下是2014年值得关注的10大趋势。
1.Demand for data in emerging markets will become an ever more important part of revenues, and drive operator investment in infrastructure.1.新兴市场对数据的需求将成为营业收入中一个越来越重要的组成部分，并将推动运营商投资于基础设施。Latin America has seen a year-on-year growth of 16.8 per cent in data subscribers, and Africa has surpaed that growth rate with an increase of 36.4 per cent year-on-year.This represents an excellent opportunity for operators to expand into digital and offer more services for 21st century lifestyles in emerging markets, where many consumers acce the internet for the first time from their mobile phones.Internet acce through feature phones is also allowing millions to have acce to the web.But it also means operators will need to increase investment in upgrading to 3G and 4G networks in emerging markets to cope with the increase in traffic and speed requirements.去年拉丁美洲的数据用户数量较上年增长了16.8%，非洲的增长幅度更高，同比增幅达到了36.4%。这为运营商提供了一个绝佳的机遇，可以开拓数字业务，并在新兴市场地区提供更多符合二十一世纪生活方式的服务。通过手机，这些地区的不少用户得以头一次使用互联网。还有数百万人通过功能型手机的上网功能得以使用网络。但这也意味着运营商需要加大投资，升级新兴市场地区的3G以及4G网络，以应对流量的增长以及网速要求的提高。
2.Mobile financial services will continue to grow quickly, and the convergence between mobile and financial sectors will accelerate.2.手机金融服务将继续快速发展，移动通信和金融行业的融合将加速。
Acro emerging markets, as much as 80 per cent of the population is unbanked.Mobile money is a solution for consumers without easy acce to a traditional retail bank, and empowers these consumers to spend money online on goods and services they previously wouldn’t have been able to acce.In some countries, mobile financial transactions already account for 25 per cent of GDP.This will only rise in the coming years.As usage of mobile money increases, operators should also be ready to work together with governments and financial institutions who will want to play a role in managing the transition to a mobile and digital economy.在整个新兴市场地区，多达80%的人口没有银行账户。对于难以获得传统零售银行服务的消费者而言，移动支付提供了一个解决方案；它还能让这些消费者能够在线购买此前无缘获取的商品和服务。在某些国家，移动金融
交易已经占到了国民生产总值的25%。未来几年这一比率只会进一步上升。随着移动支付的应用增多，运营商还应准备好与政府以及金融机构合作，它们肯定希望在经济移动化和数字化的过程中发挥管理作用。
3.We will see a spike in ecommerce acro emerging markets.3.我们将目睹电子商务在整个新兴市场地区迅猛增长。
Ecommerce is the answer to many emerging market shoppers’ problems: the desire to avoid traffic jams and overcrowded city centres, the need to order products not available to buy in more remote regions, certainty that the products purchased are not stolen or counterfeit.Consumers in countries like Brazil and Nigeria will bypa the bricks-and-mortar shopping malls that ruled western retail for decades and go straight to online shopping platforms.Jumia, a leading
ecommerce platform in Africa, is already the fourth most visited website in Nigeria – Africa’s most populous nation.Jumia is the first African company to win the award ―Best New Retail‖ in the prestigious World Retail Awards.电子商务可以解决新兴市场消费者面临的很多问题：他们希望避开交通堵塞以及过于拥挤的城市中心，他们需要订购在较为偏远的地区无法买到的商品，他们需要确信所购商品不是赃物或假货。巴西以及尼日利亚等国的消费者，将跳过主导西方数十年之久的实体购物中心这个阶段，直接进入网购阶段。非洲主要电商平台Jumia，现已成为尼日利亚访问量第四高的网站——尼日利亚是非洲人口最多的国家。Jumia是首个赢得―最佳新型零售概念奖‖(Best New Retail)的非洲企业，这是声望卓著的―世界零售奖‖(World Retail Awards)的一个分奖项。
4.More handset manufacturers will begin to produce cheaper smartphones closer to their target markets.4.越来越多的手机生产商将开始制造更加贴近目标市场的廉价智能手机。
Many emerging market consumers can’t afford an iPhone.But they want a smartphone and it is in operators’ interests to make that happen.We have seen examples of local manufacturers such as Congolese VMK stepping in to fill this void with locally-designed smartphones and tablets, as well as premier brands like Apple creating lower-end products like the iPhone 5c which is opening up markets, like China, that have been difficult for Apple to crack in the past.Operators will be looking for cheaper smartphone suppliers, to enable them to get as many consumers as poible browsing the web and using data services.很多新兴市场的消费者买不起iPhone。但他们希望拥有一部智能手机，而满足他们的愿望符合运营商的利益。为填补这一市场空白，已经有一些新兴市场的本土制造商推出了自主设计的智能手机和平板产品，例如刚果企业VMK；此外，苹果(Apple)等高端品牌也推出了像iPhone 5c这样的较低端产品，这款产品正在逐步打开一些苹果过去难以打开的市场，比如中国。运营商将会寻找廉价智能手机的供应商，以便为尽可能多的消费者提供网络浏览以及数据使用服务。
5.From entertainment to shopping, social media to news, users will want more apps and will expect a high level of local adaptation.5.从娱乐到购物，从社交媒体到新闻，用户将会想要获得更多的应用，并且将期望这些应用是高度本地化的。
Smartphone users in emerging markets – from China to Colombia to Ghana – want their own apps that solve their everyday problems, provide entertainment in their language and help them communicate with friends and family.We will see more apps which have their own version for individual countries, cities and even neighbourhoods.Hello Food in Ghana allows customers to order food from their local suppliers.Deezer in Latin America provides an alternative to
international music apps by focusing on Latin genres in Spanish and Portuguese language.Hello Taxi, a local taxi booking app, was recognised in Brazil as the number one start-up of the year.新兴市场地区的智能手机用户——从中国到哥伦比亚再到加纳——希望自己的手机应用能够解决日常生活中的各种问题，提供当地语言版本的娱乐内容，并为他们与亲友的联系提供便利。我们将看到越来越多的应用推出差异化的地区专属版本，以适用于不同的国家、城市甚至社区。加纳的Hello Food应用能帮助用户从本地供应商那里订购食品。拉丁美洲的Deezer应用专注于以西班牙语和葡萄牙语演唱的拉丁音乐，在各种国际化音乐应用中显得独树一帜。在巴西，一款本地化出租车预约应用Hello Taxi被评为年度最佳创业项目。
6.Networks in Brazil may face network challenges with the boost in mobile data traffic around the World Cup.6.预计世界杯(World Cup)前后移动数据流量将暴增，巴西的通信网络或将面临挑战。
While Ruia has invested heavily in boosting mobile infrastructure ahead of the Sochi Olympics, similar plans have not gained industry confidence in Brazil.Already prone to bottlenecks even with its relatively low rate of smartphone penetration, Brazil could face service outages during the World Cup.Regulators have come down hard on operators in the country, urging winners of the 4G spectrum auction to upgrade as quickly as poible.However, these operators have struggled to keep up with 3G demand, leading The Economist magazine to label Brazil ―The next big blackout‖.俄罗斯在索契冬奥会(Sochi Olympics)举办前投入了大量资金以强化移动通信基础设施，但在巴西，类似方案却没能赢得业界的信心。虽然巴西的智能手机拥有率相对较低，但其通信基础设施已快要成为瓶颈，在世界杯期间，巴西可能出现通信服务中断。监管当局对国内的运营商施加了巨大压力，敦促成功拍得4G频段的企业尽快进行设备升级。但这些运营商要跟上用户的3G需求已然颇为吃力，这使得《经济学人》(The Economist)杂志称，巴西将成为―下一个大范围的无信号区‖(The next big blackout)。
7.Latin America will see the bundling trend increase as consumers want more services in one package.7.在拉丁美洲，通信服务打包销售的趋势将加强，因为消费者希望一个业务包中包含更丰富的服务。
The middle income countries of Latin America have begun to catch up to developed markets in their demand for triple and quadruple play mobile, fixed line, cable and broadband packages.Operators will look to encourage this trend, allowing them to retain customers more easily and offer smartphones at reasonable prices for middle and low income consumer segments.拉丁美洲中等收入国家对于三合一以及四合一（包括移动电话、固定电话、有线电视以及宽带）通信服务的需求现已开始赶上发达国家。运营商肯定会努力推动这一趋势，这将使它们能够更容易地留住客户、并以合理价格向中低收入阶层的消费者提供智能手机。
8.Governments in emerging markets will increase their investment in mobile and digital infrastructure and innovation.8.新兴市场国家的政府将加大在移动通信、数据基础设施以及创新领域的投资。
Emerging markets want to have a piece of the digital economy, and will drive forward initiatives to improve internet acce to boost jobs, productivity and growth as stagnation in developed markets means that export-led growth models are unsustainable.Uruguay has begun by providing a laptop for every child in the country.And commentators have started to refer to Santiago as ―Chilecon Valley‖ following the government’s Start-Up Chile programme.Mobile operators can take advantage of this trend by offering solutions for entrepreneurs through mobile products and services like mobile money.新兴市场希望在数字经济大潮中分一杯羹，此外，鉴于发达市场增长停滞、致使出口导向型经济增长模式变得不可持续，新兴市场将大力推动旨在提高互联网普及率的各种计划，以增加就业机会、提高劳动生产率和经济增长率。乌拉圭已经开始行动，第一项举措就是向本国的每一个孩子提供一台笔记本电脑。此外，智利政府推出―智利创业‖(Start-Up Chile)计划之后，评论人士已开始将该国首都圣地亚哥称作为―智利的硅谷‖(Chilecon Valley)。移动运营商可以利用这一趋势，通过移动产品以及移动支付等移动服务为企业家提供解决方案。
9.Cities will be smarter and better connected, offering more points for consumers to take full advantage of mobile services.9.城市将变得更加智能化，联网程度也将提高，让消费者更有理由充分利用各种移动服务。
Emerging economies will continue to look for ways to get ahead and become more competitive by wiring their rapidly growing urban centres.Mobile operators will seize this opportunity to help cities solve their challenges and improve their citizens’ everyday lives.For example, earlier this year my company, through its subsidiary Tigo, put wifi on public buses in Kigali, Rwanda.In Colombia, Medellin was named most innovative city of the world by the Wall Street Journal.新兴经济体将继续寻求取得进步以及增强竞争力的途径，例如将自身快速发展的城市中心用网络连接起来。移动运营商应抓住这一机遇，帮助城市解决其所面临的挑战，并改善城市居民的日常生活水平。例如，今年早些时候，我的公司通过旗下子公司Tigo让卢旺达首都基加利(Kigali)的公共汽车实现了wifi覆盖。而哥伦比亚城市麦德林(Medellin)被《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)列为全球最具创新活力的城市。
10.Governments in emerging markets will jump on the e-government bandwagon at an ever-increasing rate.10.新兴市场国家的政府将以越来越快的速度融入电子政务的大潮。
The opportunities for mobile operators to collaborate with governments in this space are huge and many governments are looking to bring their services online.Two districts in south India have recently announced the implementation of online welfare disbursement and registration of
marriage certificates.China’s education ministry plans to use egovernment platforms to provide rural students with adequate education using mobile apps.Millicom has enabled the Democratic
Republic of Congo to pay teachers’ salaries via mobile, helping to fight payroll corruption.It also allows Tanzanian parents to register the birth of their children via mobile through its mobile operator Tigo.移动运营商与政府在这一领域展开合作的前景非常广阔，还有很多政府正计划将政务服务网络化。印度南部的两个行政区近期宣布将推出福利金在线发放以及在线结婚登记服务。中国教育部计划利用电子政务平台、以手机应用的形式向边远地区的学生提供合适的教育资源。在我的公司Millicom的协助下，刚果民主共和国得以通过手机向教师发放工资，此举有助于打击克扣教师薪酬的腐败行为。Millicom还通过旗下的移动运营商Tigo，使坦桑尼亚的家长们能够用手机为自己的孩子进行出生登记。
Hans Holger Albrecht is president and chief executive of Millicom
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